With Arod, it's almost always about his mind, and not his ability. Which is probably the reason why his "bad" years have come after winning the MVP. Arod tends to put too much pressure on himself, and has not yet learned to consistently allow his talent to take over (might never learn at this point).
It looks like he'll miss at least 20 to 25 games this year. The last time he missed that many in one season was in 1999 when he only played 129 games, but still put up 42 HRs, 111 RBIs, and scored 110 runs. So, we know that Arod don't need a lot of games to put up huge numbers.
Interestingly, I think missing all these games might actually help Arod mentally. Maybe he won't focus so much on his overall stats and production. Maybe he'll remember how he handled his season last year. At least now, he knows he won't match his production from last season, and stop worrying about that. In any case, I hope at some point, he'll figure it out.
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